FanBoardHQ

South Alabama

University of South Alabama · 2025 · Sun Belt

FanBoardHQ CFP
#114
Efficiency
-11.9
109th FBS
Record
4-8
Conf. record
3-5
Conf. finish
T-9th
of 14
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South Alabama went 4-8 and was ranked 114th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 84th-ranked offense was the engine, backed by an 117th-ranked defense. They ran the ball on 61% of offensive plays with a 77th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 39% of plays with a 97th-ranked passing attack.

Quadrant record

By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.

Q1
0-2
Q2
0-0
Q3
0-2
Q4
4-4

Projected wins

Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Expected: 4.0 wins
Strength of Record
115th
-5.9 wins above a 25th-ranked team's expectation
Strength of Schedule
to date
101st
full season
101st
AP poll
Unranked
Conf. sched. difficulty
114th
a 25th-ranked team would win ~7.3 conference games on this schedule

The resume

Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).

WkOpponentConfOpp rankResultExp. marginWin probGameScoreQuad
1vs Morgan StateMEACW 3821+26.7100%-22.0Q4
2vs TulaneAmerican Athletic#26L 3133-14.00%1.2Q3
3@ AuburnSEC#57L 1531-25.80%-4.5Q1
4vs Coastal CarolinaSun Belt#99L 2038+4.80%-33.5Q4
5@ North TexasAmerican Athletic#21L 2236-28.30%2.8Q1
6@ TroySun Belt#80L 2431-5.50%-7.4Q4
8vs Arkansas StateSun Belt#90L 1415+2.40%-15.0Q4
9@ Georgia StateSun Belt#134W 3831+5.0100%-9.7Q4
10vs LouisianaSun Belt#100L 2231+3.30%-28.5Q4
12@ ULMSun Belt#128W 2614+6.7100%-6.2Q4
13vs Southern MissSun Belt#95W 4235+2.0100%5.0Q4
14@ Texas StateSun Belt#79L 2649-14.20%-24.8Q3

12 played · 4-8. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.

The season

The model’s read on South Alabama, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.

-30.5-14.3+1.9-221-5-343-7-15-10-29-65-25Week 0Week 20
Line = the model's read each week; dots = that week's game (green above the line, red below).

Passing & rushing

Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.

Offense
PassingEff 97th
SR 100thYPP 96thEPA 94th
RushingEff 77th
SR 85thYPP 92ndEPA 69th
Defense
Pass defenseEff 127th
SR 98thYPP 111thEPA 131st
Rush defenseEff 110th
SR 114thYPP 79thEPA 112th
Dropback rate 39%Tempo +5.5 snaps/game vs. averageFaced pass defenses ranked 103rd on average
Success rate by down

Their offense vs. what their defense allows.

1st · Offense: 45%1st · Defense allowed: 44%1st2nd · Offense: 38%2nd · Defense allowed: 42%2nd3rd/4th · Offense: 45%3rd/4th · Defense allowed: 45%3rd/4th
OffenseDefense allowed
Points by quarter

Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.

Q1 · Scored: 80.0Q1 · Allowed: 83.0Q1Q2 · Scored: 66.0Q2 · Allowed: 86.0Q2Q3 · Scored: 76.0Q3 · Allowed: 79.0Q3Q4 · Scored: 100.0Q4 · Allowed: 96.0Q4
ScoredAllowed

What kind of team is this?

Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.

elite bothdefense-ledrebuildingoffense-ledSouth AlabamaOffenseDefense
South Alabama Offense vs Defense, 2025
Offensive EffRanked 84th
-2.9
Field position: -2.1Finishing drives: -0.8
Field position -2.1Finishing drives -0.8= -2.9
Offensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 129th · Finishing 74th

Defensive EffRanked 117th
-6.9
Field position: -0.6Finishing drives: -6.3
Field position -0.6Finishing drives -6.3= -6.9
Defensive Eff efficiency split into field position and finishing

Field position 90th · Finishing 118th

2.27 points per drive on offense, 2.62 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 30.

Play-calling & efficiency

What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.

By quarter
Quarter (att.)Pass / rushSuccessYd/play
Q1(203)40% / 60%46%6.2
Q2(210)38% / 62%36%4.7
Q3(196)38% / 62%47%5.5
Q4(234)42% / 58%42%5.7
how play-calling and results shifted through games — (n) = plays, season total
Passing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(128)10.347%7.8
2nd(105)7.741%6.4
3rd(80)8.234%5.5
4th(21)5.724%2.0
All (334)40%6.5
Rushing by down
Down (att.)Avg. to goSuccessYd/play
1st(228)9.844%5.1
2nd(170)7.436%4.7
3rd(93)4.753%4.8
4th(18)3.378%5.0
All (509)44%4.9

South Alabama, all games.